Your Regularly Scheduled Programming Has Returned

I found a job in October, worked swing shift so I could care for my kid while my wife worked mornings (vice versa in evenings).  I thought “damn I’ll have all day to work on the market” (we live in PST). 

WRONG.  12 month olds don’t give a shit about stocks.

After killing it in late Aug./Sept./early Oct. thankfully I could afford to trade small and lock in an above average year (ended up +15.53%).  After the new year, time limitations forced me to cut way back on stocks.  I still had money in play, but discretionary trades were near nil.  Fast forward to early February…my employer decided to hire me on (from a temp agency) and “rewarded” me with no raise and no benefits for 120 days.  My wife suggested that I tender my resignation…I concurred.  Unreal…but it was for the best.  We now have an improved plan in place.

It was nice to get back into the day-to-day with the market again.   I took my time and wanted to get comfortable with trading again before I started to write.  Now that I think about it, I think my trading is improved when I’m writing.  Maybe I’m able to think through my ideas better.  Maybe it’s extra caution, knowing that if I fuck up, the world can see.  Whatever…here I am.

Here are some stocks that I’m keeping an eye on where I could potentially take on long positions.

$DRI – This stock has been in a range between 54-40 since September of 2009 and now sits close to all-time highs.  I think their restaurants are “absolutely dreadful”, but hell, through 55 bucks, what is going to stop this stock?

DRI 2012-03-26

$JBL – 26 has served as a point of contention for a very long time in this stock.  What looked like a clean break last week was not to be, as this one came right back into the 26 vortex.  One of my favorite patterns is the pullback from a “breakout”…this has that look to it right now.  My emergency stop would be around 24.25.  I was really bullish on a number of semi stocks at the beginning of March.  Unfortunately I was shaken out of all of my positions, as many of them rebounded nicely.  This one looks like a keeper.

JBL 2012-03-26

$FLEX – This one looked like it was breaking out twice in March…I was long a number of July 7 calls (from February 17) and ended up taking a loss on March 3rd as neither of those materialized.  Lo and behold, there she goes trying to push higher again to no avail.  Nevertheless, I like what I see here and barring a close below the three month MA and lower BB, I’ll be looking to avenge that loss in the coming days.

FLEX 2012-03-26

$TTM – This stock again gets stuck between 26 and 29.  I like the daily pattern (this is the weekly chart illustrating the indecision in that price range).

TTM 2012-03-26

$GM and $F – both of these caught my eye, but I give a slight preference to Ford.  Look at how it’s finding support from the 1 year EMA.  Drilling down to the daily, this is at the spot where I traditionally like to jump in.  One caveat, these longer setups make me nervous.  In my experience, the longer they last, the greater the likelihood of a shakeout in the opposite direction of the eventual move (that will almost always take me with it).  With that in mind, I’m really searching for long-only trades right now, therefore I would actually prefer to see a break to the downside before I start a position.

F 2012-03-26 weekly

F 2012-03-26

That’s all I have for now.

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