What I’m Looking At

It figures that my first post ‘of note’ was originally linked to the wrong post.  Fuck me. 

My bad. 

In light of those events, I suppose I now owe it to the world to sack up and put my money where my mouth is.  Here is what I’m looking at to the short side.  All options trades.

$POT: September 55 puts or Sept 56.67 puts.  My ‘stop’ will be in the 56.5-57 range, so the 56’s might be a better choice.  I could get degenerate and take a gander at the Sept 50’s…but I always seem to lose those trades.  Then again, when you have conviction, sometimes you have to take bold (read: bat-shit stupid) measures.

$DFS: I love this pattern…it’s my favorite of all of them.  That volume is like a staircase…oh man, drooool.  Can I get Sept 21’s?   Damn, option OI is really thin here…that sucks.

$HNZ: Heh, I would love to buy Heinz at 48 for the 4%…I’d really love to fund that venture with profits from selling it short.  Ouch.  Another thin one here.  September 50’s maybe?  Meh.

$SINA: Apparently they are reporting soon?  Who the hell knows with these Chinese companies.  I could go Chinese lotto here with the Sept 85’s…but I have a feeling I missed the boat here.  The 85’s were up nearly 100% today.  Sucks, but I’m not going to chase it.

$CBS: September 25’s are looking good, though the 22’s could be in play for a huge potential gain.

We’re at a tipping point.  I found these charts interesting due to the similarity of the patterns I see repeated over and over to the upside.  Even so, there is no historical precedent to these observations, so they could be utterly meaningless. 

Contrary to this testimony, I would not be surprised at all if we go higher from here.  The longer that stock prices compress in this upward swing, the greater the chances that is realized (higher), IMO.  I don’t want to get caught being wrong with far OTM options in a vacuum of lowering volatility/melt up.  If I’m wrong I’ll know before the weekend and can adjust accordingly.

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